Weather Predicting.

With my race coming up next week. about 7-8 days away, I have taken to glancing at the 10 day forecast.

Last year, it stormed in a very spectacular way all night long.   I like storms, but I do not like to run in them.

It looks like this may happen again this year! 


Feeling a little peeved, I asked my friend who is studying to be a meteorologist all about these 10 day forecasts.

He said, “Heck they are very inaccurate”.  Indeed.  Just recently at the 10 day mark for a big race it was predicted to be 70 and Sunny.  When the day came it was about 38 degrees for the start…and sunny.

According to the National Weather Service 6-10 day forecasts are about 40% accurate.  That is not too accurate.

So when I was first able to see the 10 day for March 4th…it looked like a lovely weekend.  Sunny all the way through.

After a day it was revised, and it appears to be a rainy weekend, but on race day it was predicted at 0% chance of rain…pretty nice.

24 hours later.  Race day is 70% chance of rain.

4 hours later (editing the post), there is a sever thunderstorm advisory for Saturday night and that persistent 70% chance of rain.

I can only hope that 24 hours later something different will evolve.

Having heard from so many people that 10 days, or even 6 day forecasts are just pretty numbers, I went on line and found other people have had similar interest in knowing the weather ahead of time.  One person so much so that he used every bit of statistics that I learned in my life to try to figure out which online service had the best forecast.  His conclusion, based on a lot of complex statistical gymnastics- they are suck equally.

Hard to know even what to plan on wearing.  I had not imagined running in a rainstorm in 50 degree weather with wind!

On top of that, all sorts of folks are coming down to enjoy a nice Florida weekend!  And it will be raining!  My only comfort is that morning beach walks hopefully will yield lots of throw up treasures from the sea.

And well, with the weather looking this bad, I’ve stopped all worry about a PR.  Now, I just want to stay DRY!


7 thoughts on “Weather Predicting.

  1. Last summer I bought my son some very pricey raingear from REI. Since he lives in a virtual rainforest, I thought he should have something that actually keeps him dry. (A lot of so-called raincoats and jackets don’t—they’re just “water resistant” and lose the chemical coating after a few bouts in the washer.) The gear I did buy him was designed for athletic use, so he could ride his bike while wearing it. Not that I’m saying you should invest a few hundred in a high-tech rain jacket, but that’s an option, if you’re determined to run in the rain. I hope you don’t have to, however. I hate just walking in rain, let alone running in it.

    The local “meteorologists” suck at predicting the weather here too. I think being in California where it’s sunny and dry 90% of the time makes them lazy. The one on my parents’ favorite news channel predicted we would get rain last Monday, and it was bone dry that day. The sun came out, and it got warm and even a bit humid. So much for accuracy!

  2. paul says:

    Great post. I used to worry about the weather leading up to a race but i just get on with it now. It will be what it will be. Hope it is good for you though

    • I need to follow your example Paul. with this being my “comeback race” I’ve been focused on making things “perfect” which usually means disaster for me!!!! LOL!

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